Bayer has raised its 2026 earnings outlook after stronger-than-expected pharmaceutical performance, with cancer and kidney-disease treatments driving growth. The German group is showing signs of operational improvement, although agricultural weakness, litigation costs and high debt continue to weigh on its broader financial recovery.
◉ Bayer increased its 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast to €9.8–€10.3 billion.
◉ Nubeqa and Kerendia are emerging as major growth engines for the pharmaceutical division.
◉ Higher operating earnings offer progress, but debt and legal liabilities remain significant challenges.
Pharma Drives Growth
Bayer reported third-quarter group sales of €10.05 billion on November 3, an increase of 4.1% year-on-year on a reported basis. EBITDA before special items rose 6.9% to €1.62 billion, supported primarily by its prescription-drug business.
Pharmaceutical sales climbed 8% to €4.68 billion. Growth was led by Nubeqa, a cancer treatment, and Kerendia, used for chronic kidney disease and heart failure. Their performance helped Bayer improve its full-year profitability expectations despite uneven results across the group.
The company raised its forecast for group EBITDA before special items to €9.8–€10.3 billion, from €9.6–€10.1 billion previously. It also upgraded its pharmaceutical division’s expected EBITDA margin to 25–27%.
New Growth Engines
Nubeqa and Kerendia illustrate the importance of building revenue around medicines with expanding demand. Bayer reported year-on-year sales growth of 58.3% for Nubeqa and 64.9% for Kerendia, adjusted for currency and portfolio effects.
The performance is particularly significant as established products face competitive pressure following patent expirations. Sales of Xarelto and Eylea continued to decline, although Bayer said the pace of contraction was gradually slowing.
The challenge is to turn successful launches into durable cash generation. New medicines require ongoing research, commercial investment and regulatory execution, while revenue from older treatments can erode as competitors enter the market.
Recovery Remains Uneven
Bayer’s agricultural business provided a counterweight to pharmaceutical growth. Crop Science recorded lower sales and earnings in the seasonally smaller quarter, affected by higher costs and selling expenses. Consumer Health sales were broadly flat after currency and portfolio adjustments, while earnings declined.
The company also reported a net loss of €672 million, reflecting impairment charges and other special items. This underlines the distinction between improving underlying operating performance and the accounting costs that continue to affect reported results.
Bayer lowered its expected year-end net financial debt to €28–€29 billion, compared with its previous forecast of €29–€30 billion. Its updated free-cash-flow outlook also improved by €1 billion, although the company still expects a negative figure for 2026.
Debt And Litigation
Bayer’s financial recovery remains closely linked to its ability to generate cash and reduce debt. The group’s 2018 acquisition of Monsanto expanded its agricultural chemicals and seeds business but also left it facing extensive litigation related to Roundup weedkiller.
The improved earnings outlook represents progress, but it does not eliminate those structural risks. Future performance will depend on pharmaceutical growth, agricultural-market conditions, cash conversion and the costs associated with legal claims.
For markets, the latest results present a mixed picture: a stronger pharmaceutical business is improving the operating outlook, while debt and litigation remain central to the company’s longer-term financial position.
