Thursday to Friday: EU and USA Market Recap and What to Watch

Short description: European and US markets faced renewed selling pressure on Thursday as technology shares tumbled, geopolitical uncertainty returned to energy markets and investors reassessed the outlook for AI investment. Friday’s US employment report could become the next major catalyst for global markets, currencies, bonds and precious metals.

◉ Technology stocks became the centre of the sell-off, with concerns about AI infrastructure spending and semiconductor demand weighing heavily on both European and US equities.

◉ Oil rebounded amid renewed uncertainty surrounding Iran, while gold remained above $4,100, reflecting persistent demand for protection against geopolitical and financial risks.

◉ Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report is the key event, with employment, wage growth and unemployment data potentially reshaping Federal Reserve expectations.

Market Overview: A Broad Risk-Off Session

Thursday developed into one of the most challenging sessions for global equities in recent months. What initially appeared to be a continuation of Wednesday’s recovery turned into a sharp reversal as investors reassessed the outlook for technology companies, artificial intelligence infrastructure and geopolitical risk.

The European session started on relatively positive footing. Mining companies and basic resources initially supported regional markets, while lower oil prices offered some relief to investors concerned about energy costs.

However, sentiment deteriorated as the session progressed.

The pan-European STOXX 600 eventually closed approximately 0.38% lower at 654.87 points. Technology shares were among the weakest performers, with the sector declining approximately 3.2%. Semiconductor manufacturers experienced particularly heavy selling.

ASML, Infineon, Aixtron, Soitec and Siltronic were among the companies facing substantial pressure. Defence stocks also weakened, with Rheinmetall suffering a significant decline after revising its 2026 sales outlook.

The session demonstrated how quickly investor sentiment can change when expectations surrounding high-growth sectors become uncertain.

European markets were not experiencing an isolated correction. The pressure was increasingly connected to developments in the United States, particularly the reassessment of future artificial intelligence investment.

Wall Street: Technology Sell-Off Intensifies

The US session brought considerably heavier selling.

Major American indices recorded their sharpest declines since the April 2025 market shock, with technology and AI-related companies leading the losses.

Index	Thursday performance
S&P 500	-4.4%
Dow Jones	-3.4%
Nasdaq Composite	-5.5%
Russell 2000	-4.4%

The S&P 500 finished at 7,353.73 points, while the Nasdaq Composite closed at 24,315.

The decline was particularly significant because it erased the previous session’s gains and placed additional pressure on an equity market that had been trading at elevated valuations.

The semiconductor industry experienced an especially difficult session. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recorded a 12.2% decline, its largest one-day drop since April 2025.

Nvidia lost approximately 9.3%, while Tesla also suffered substantial selling pressure.

The market reaction reflected more than disappointing individual company results. Investors were beginning to question whether the enormous investment cycle surrounding artificial intelligence could continue at its previous pace without encountering political, regulatory and infrastructure constraints.

A further concern emerged from the US political landscape. Democratic victories in the midterm elections increased attention on possible restrictions affecting new data-centre developments in certain regions.

For companies dependent on continued expansion of AI infrastructure, even the possibility of additional regulatory obstacles introduced another layer of uncertainty.

This does not necessarily mean that demand for artificial intelligence is weakening. Rather, investors are becoming more selective about which companies will ultimately capture the economic benefits of the investment cycle.

Qualcomm: A Warning From Semiconductors

Ticker: QCOM | Sector: Semiconductors

Qualcomm wants $15B from data centres as phone-chip era shifts

Qualcomm became one of Thursday’s most closely watched corporate stories.

The company’s smartphone-related business delivered weaker-than-expected figures, raising questions about its ability to maintain growth while expanding into new markets.

Handset revenue declined 26% to approximately $5.14 billion, while chip-segment sales also came under pressure.

Shares fell approximately 9.5% as investors assessed the implications of slowing smartphone demand, rising memory costs and the gradual loss of revenue associated with Apple’s transition away from Qualcomm modem technology.

However, the longer-term picture is more complicated.

Qualcomm is investing heavily in data-centre processors, automotive technology and other businesses designed to reduce its dependence on smartphones.

Its automotive business has demonstrated substantial growth, while its data-centre ambitions could become an important contributor to future revenue.

The central question is timing.

Investors are being asked to value a company undergoing a significant business transformation while its largest existing revenue segment faces structural pressure.

Thursday’s reaction illustrates how demanding the market has become when it comes to delivering measurable growth rather than simply presenting an attractive long-term strategy.

Oil: Geopolitical Risk Returns

Oil markets experienced a substantial reversal.

Following Wednesday’s sharp decline, Brent crude recovered approximately 3.88% to settle at $98.29 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate advanced approximately 2.72% to $90.52.

The recovery reflected renewed concerns about shipping security and the continuing uncertainty surrounding the conflict involving the United States and Iran.

Reports of maritime incidents and tanker-related security concerns reminded investors that the geopolitical risk premium had not disappeared.

The Strait of Hormuz remains particularly important because of its strategic role in global energy transportation.

The previous decline in oil prices had reflected expectations that the political developments in Washington could create conditions for reduced military escalation. Thursday’s recovery demonstrated that financial markets are not yet convinced that a diplomatic solution is imminent.

For Europe, the implications extend beyond energy companies.

Higher oil prices can increase transportation costs, put pressure on industrial margins and complicate the inflation outlook. This becomes particularly important when European economic growth remains uneven.

Energy markets are therefore likely to remain sensitive to developments in the Middle East throughout Friday’s session.

Gold: Safe-Haven Demand Remains Relevant

Gold remained one of the most closely watched assets during Thursday’s volatility.

After moving through the $4,100-per-ounce level in Thursday’s market coverage, the precious metal continued to reflect the competing forces influencing global markets.

On one side, expectations surrounding interest rates and Treasury yields remain important for gold because the metal does not generate interest income.

On the other, geopolitical uncertainty, equity-market volatility and concerns about the broader economic outlook continue to support demand for defensive assets.

The latest developments also highlight an important distinction between gold and other risk-sensitive investments.

While technology stocks and cryptocurrencies experienced substantial selling pressure, gold remained comparatively resilient.

Friday’s US employment report could introduce another important variable. Stronger employment and wage figures could strengthen expectations for a more restrictive Federal Reserve policy, potentially putting pressure on gold.

Conversely, weaker labour-market data could increase expectations of monetary easing and provide additional support.

The relationship will not necessarily be immediate or straightforward, particularly if geopolitical developments continue to influence investor behaviour.

Bitcoin: Risk Appetite Under Pressure

Bitcoin also experienced a significant decline, reaching a seven-week low and briefly trading below $76,000.

The cryptocurrency fell by as much as 5.8% as selling pressure spread from technology equities into other risk-sensitive assets.

The decline came alongside weakness in semiconductor stocks and broader concerns about the sustainability of the AI investment cycle.

Bitcoin’s performance also reflected developments within the digital-asset industry itself, including weaker retail participation and approximately $1 billion in reported outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs.

The latest movement is another indication that cryptocurrency markets remain sensitive to broader financial conditions.

Although Bitcoin is frequently discussed as an alternative monetary asset, its short-term price behaviour continues to demonstrate considerable sensitivity to changes in investor risk appetite.

The relationship between technology shares, liquidity expectations and digital assets will remain an important theme to monitor as the week progresses.

The China Question: A Different Market Narrative

Not every market followed the same direction on Thursday.

Chinese equities and selected Asian technology shares demonstrated greater resilience, with domestic policy support and the changing US political environment influencing regional investor sentiment.

The possibility of tighter US scrutiny of technology infrastructure could create additional incentives for Chinese companies to accelerate domestic development.

This introduces an interesting contrast between the American and Chinese technology investment narratives.

In the United States, investors are increasingly questioning the scale, profitability and regulatory sustainability of AI infrastructure spending.

In China, the same global technological competition continues to support strategic investment in domestic semiconductor capabilities, artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing.

However, this divergence should not automatically be interpreted as a long-term shift in global capital allocation.

Trade restrictions, technology-export controls and geopolitical relations remain significant uncertainties.

What to Watch on Friday: November 6

Friday’s calendar is particularly important because several economic releases and central-bank appearances could influence expectations for interest rates on both sides of the Atlantic.

All times below are Central European Time (CET).

Top event 14:30 — US Nonfarm Payrolls (October)

The October employment report is likely to be the main macroeconomic event of the day.

Indicator	Forecast	Previous
Nonfarm Payrolls	+65,000	+29,000
Unemployment Rate	4.2%	4.2%
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	+0.3%	+0.1%

The employment report will provide additional information about the strength of the US labour market.

A stronger-than-expected employment figure could challenge expectations for monetary easing, particularly if wage growth also accelerates.

A weaker report could reinforce concerns about economic momentum and increase attention on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

The combination of employment growth, unemployment and wage inflation will be more important than any individual figure.

Other important economic events

Time (CET)	Event	Forecast / Previous
08:00	German Industrial Production (September)	0.0% / +2.0%
10:30	Fed’s John Williams speaks	Monetary policy
10:30	ECB’s Philip Lane speaks	Inflation and growth
11:00	Eurozone Retail Sales (September)	-0.1% / +0.1% MoM
13:15	BoE’s Huw Pill speaks	UK monetary policy
14:30	Canadian Employment Report	+14,600 / -68,300
14:30	Canadian Unemployment Rate	6.5%
16:00	University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment	Approximately 48
17:00	BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks	Japanese monetary policy
19:00	US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	Previous: 462

European economic indicators:

German industrial production and Eurozone retail sales will provide an additional assessment of the region’s economic condition.

Germany remains particularly important because of its manufacturing exposure and its influence on the broader European industrial economy.

A flat industrial production reading following the previous month’s 2% increase would suggest that the recent improvement may not yet represent a sustained recovery.

Meanwhile, weaker retail sales could reinforce concerns about European consumer demand.

Central-bank communication

Comments from John Williams and Philip Lane will attract attention as investors continue assessing the outlook for monetary policy in the United States and Europe.

The Bank of England also deserves attention following Thursday’s increase in its policy rate to 4%.

Markets will be interested in whether policymakers see further tightening as necessary, particularly if elevated energy prices continue to create inflationary pressure.

In Japan, comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda could influence expectations for future interest-rate adjustments and the yen.

Consumer sentiment

The University of Michigan survey will provide another indication of US household confidence.

Inflation expectations will be particularly relevant. The previous one-year inflation expectations reading stood at 4.7%, a level that could remain a concern for policymakers.

Corporate Earnings: Companies to Follow

Friday’s earnings calendar includes approximately 60 reporting companies, with the majority scheduled to publish results before the US market opens.

Several companies deserve particular attention because their results could provide additional information about different areas of the economy.

Company	Ticker	Sector
Moderna	MRNA	Biotechnology
Humana	HUM	Healthcare
Vistra	VST	Energy
Enbridge	ENB	Energy Infrastructure
Charter Communications	CHTR	Telecommunications
Brookfield Asset Management	BAM	Asset Management
Under Armour	UAA	Consumer
Oklo	OKLO	Nuclear Energy
TeraWulf	WULF	Digital Infrastructure

Four companies stand out from a broader sector perspective.

Moderna: Investors will assess the company’s financial performance and the outlook for its biotechnology pipeline.
Humana: Healthcare costs, insurance margins and membership trends remain important indicators for the healthcare sector.
Vistra: Results could provide insight into electricity demand, power prices and the economics of energy generation.
Brookfield Asset Management: Investors will examine asset-management activity, capital deployment and the broader investment environment.

The reporting schedule also includes companies connected to nuclear energy, digital infrastructure and telecommunications, adding further insight into sectors that have been closely linked to long-term investment themes.

The Bigger Picture: Three Market Themes

Thursday’s developments reveal three important themes that could continue influencing markets over the coming sessions.

1. The AI investment cycle is facing a valuation test

The latest technology sell-off does not necessarily indicate the end of the AI investment cycle. However, investors are increasingly demanding evidence that enormous infrastructure investments can generate sustainable earnings.

Semiconductors, data centres, electricity providers and technology infrastructure companies could remain particularly sensitive to changes in expectations.

2. Geopolitical developments remain central to energy markets

Oil prices are likely to remain sensitive to developments involving Iran and the security of international shipping routes.

For European economies, the direction of energy prices will remain important for inflation, manufacturing costs and consumer purchasing power.

3. Employment data could influence the next market direction

Friday’s US employment report arrives at a particularly sensitive moment.

Equity valuations are under pressure, gold is trading around historic levels, cryptocurrencies remain volatile and investors are reassessing monetary-policy expectations.

A significant deviation from employment forecasts could influence several asset classes simultaneously.

Final Outlook: What Matters Most

The transition from Thursday to Friday highlights a market environment in which several investment themes are competing for attention.

The technology sell-off has challenged confidence in the sustainability of AI-related valuations. Oil has demonstrated how quickly geopolitical developments can reverse market expectations, while gold continues to attract attention as investors assess uncertainty across financial markets.

Friday’s employment report will provide the next important piece of information.

However, the broader market direction will probably depend on how investors interpret the combination of employment growth, inflation expectations, central-bank communication and geopolitical developments.

The most important question is no longer simply whether markets can recover from Thursday’s losses.

It is whether the current correction represents a temporary repricing of expectations or the beginning of a broader adjustment in global investment positioning.

For now, investors enter Friday with technology valuations, energy security and US monetary policy firmly in focus.